Forex Insights 09.05.2017

This week’s Forex Insights

This week began with a big fundamental event: French election. Macron won – which was no surprise. This result will strengthen the EUR for the next week. One may say that this result of the election was already priced in – but a look at the Commitments of Traders Data (COT-Data) showed that the Commercials were not „on board“ during the election event. They may enter here.
I have looked at different pairs this week. Have a look.


French election: Macron–>Pro Euro
EUR is at very low readings of COT-Index when looking at the commercials. Actual Reading is below 4 on ALL scanned timeframes (13, 26, 52, 104, 156 weeks). Commercials might have been scared by the French election – but they may also enter as political stability will now take place in the EUR-Zone. I think there are positions to be entered at the beginning of the week. So despite low index reading I would expect price to go up. Non-Commercials already were long with readings of about 100. So always have in mind that professional sentiment could also indicate EUR to go weak. Next week’s COT-Index will give clarity.
USD is still very strong and has a reading of 100 on 13 and 26 weeks. Commercials are currently bullish on USD. Non-Commercials have a reading of 0 on 13 and 26 weeks. Bias of the USD appears to be long.
Current trend is up, Charting a triangle, expect price to leave Triangle to the upside. Direction: Long!
First target: 1.1120, Second target 1.1315
Support: 1.0876