Forex Insights 09.05.2017

This week’s Forex Insights

This week began with a big fundamental event: French election. Macron won – which was no surprise. This result will strengthen the EUR for the next week. One may say that this result of the election was already priced in – but a look at the Commitments of Traders Data (COT-Data) showed that the Commercials were not „on board“ during the election event. They may enter here.
I have looked at different pairs this week. Have a look.


CAD is still at a reading of 100 on 13, 26 and 52 week’s index from the commercials! CAD remains to be strong. AUD has currently a reading of 28 on 26 week’s index. So I expect price to level at 1.0000! The pair will find strong support there by trendline, Fibonacci 38,2 retracement and a round number.
Overall trend is UP! Currently: correction! We’ve just seen a double-top-formation. So price is expected to go down.
Performance shows price to go down 57% of the time by 141 pips on average within the last 7 years while only going up 66 pips on average.
Last week’s last three days formed a Three-Crows-Formation which is expecting price to continue to go down.
Direction: Short! (RiskRewardRatio < 1:2)
Target: 1.0000
Resistance: 1.0308