Forex Week #23 05.06.2017

My COT-Index-Analysis

I made a great analysis on forex and futures this week. The Commitments of Traders report was published on Friday 02.06.2017 – The COT-Index shows us in which way the commercials are spending their money in the financial world. An Index-reading of 10 and lower means that in the selected timeframe the commercials are now most short. A reading of 90 and above means that the commercials are the most long.
The Non-Commercials are the driving force in the financial world as they want to make big profits on market conditions. Understanding what the commercials are doing lets you anticipate what the non-commercials are going to do next.
My strategy is to go long on pairs where the index for the long pair is above 90 and the short pair is below 10.
I will combine this with technical analysis on trend and support and resistance.



Seasonal: 71% up, 193 pips up, 104 pips down

Harmonic: MN AB=CD, bullish

I expect EURUSD to go no more up than to 1.1460.


EUR has and index of 0 on all timeframes. So EUR is expected to go weak within the next days and weeks. Now the commercials have gone netto-short – as they have not been since May 2014!!! Actual market behavior shows, that non-commercials are driving prices now. Also retail-traders as us are on the road to higher EURUSD-prices.

USD’s index is still at 100 on 13 and 26 weeks timeframe. I still expect the dollar to become more bullish as it already got more bullish on other pairs like USDCHF.